Break-even win rate calculator
How often a strategy has to win to make money, given the size of its average win, its average loss and its costs.
Calculations run in your browser. Nothing you type is sent or stored. Results are estimates for information only, not investment advice.
How it works
With average win W, average loss L and cost c per round trip, a trade nets W − c when it wins and loses L + c when it loses. The break-even win rate p solves p × (W − c) = (1 − p) × (L + c), which gives p = (L + c) ÷ (W + L). The expected result per trade is p × (W − c) − (1 − p) × (L + c).
The examples come from our own tests. The daily RSI figures are from a two-year test on 22 Upbit coins with 0.5% round-trip costs already included, so the cost field is set to zero: oversold buying won 57.9% of trades and lost money, buying an RSI breakout above 70 won 43.2% and made money. The 4-hour trend rule is our nine-year replay of 1,037 trades.
Questions
Is a high win rate a good sign?
Only together with the size of wins and losses. Rules that buy oversold dips often win 55% to 63% of the time and still lose money, because their few losing trades are large. Win rate against expectancy.
Why do trend-following systems win so rarely?
They cut losing trades quickly and let a few winners run. Our 4-hour trend rule won 36.4% of its trades; its winners averaged +13.0% and its losers −3.4%. More on that.